The Wonderful World of Slate and Online Prediction

Although I never really talk about it in public, my favorite website on the net is a little news outfit called "Slate.com" It provides a wide range of intelligent news with a rare combination of intelligence and wit.

One of the interesting things this website introduced me to was the pastime of online prediction markets. http://www.slate.com/id/2086316

Apparently, there is a whole range of websites (of questionable legality, mind you) where you can buy and sell pretty much any kind of wager. One topic I find particularly interesting is the future trading on the next Democratic Presidential Candidate. A few days ago Hillary's stock price for clinching the Democratic Nomination on InTrade was at 2.2. This means that only about 22% of people thought Hillary would become the Democratic nominee (this was after Barack won Iowa, mind you.) The day after Hillary won New Hampshire her price shot up to 7.7 or, 77% probability.

Markets like Intrade have been demonstrated to be some of the most accurate barometers of political prediction. When money is on the line, people tend to be giving the matter serious thought. Taking an average of all these serious thoughts gives one some accuracy.

Unfortunately for Americans, I believe the U.S. Attorney has recently made some rules against online betting. I am not sure whether Intrade qualifies... but I don't recommend anyone placing monetary bets. Intrade does have bets for play-money though, if you are interested...